Egypt Sets 6.8% Growth Target and $40B Tourism Ambition for 2030

Egypt is working toward 6.8% economic growth in the 2029/2030 fiscal year and public debt below 70% of GDP by June 2030, under an economic programme that runs from 2027 to 2030. The plan also sets inflation at 5% to 7%, industry at 20% of GDP, digital exports at $12 billion a year and venture capital flows of $5 billion by the end of the decade.

The programme is to be finalised by the end of December 2026, after which it faces a two-month consultation with experts. Measures under discussion include higher minimum wages in both the public and private sectors, and a raised threshold for personal income tax exemption.

The starting point

Real GDP grew 4.4% in 2025, and the IMF projects 5.1% for 2026. Over a longer arc, growth climbed from 2.9% in fiscal 2013/2014 to 5.1% in the most recent fiscal year.

Fiscal indicators moved with it. The budget deficit fell from 12% in 2014 to 5.8% in fiscal 2025/2026, and the primary balance swung from a 3.9% deficit to a 4.9% surplus. Foreign exchange reserves rose from $16.7 billion to $57.3 billion by the end of September 2026. Foreign direct investment went from $4.1 billion in 2014 to $18 billion in 2025.

On the external and labour fronts, the government wants the current account deficit narrowed from 5.1% to 2.3% and unemployment cut from 5.8% to 5.5%. Total investment is to rise from 12.7% to 20% of GDP.

Fiscal space and the tax base

Cairo is aiming for fiscal space of $86.8 billion, or EGP 4.8 trillion, by fiscal 2029/2030. In the previous fiscal year that figure stood at $39.8 billion to $41.6 billion, equivalent to EGP 2.2 trillion to EGP 2.3 trillion.

Government support is projected at $15.2 billion, or EGP 840 billion, this fiscal year. Once related loans are counted, the cost reaches about $18.1 billion, or EGP 1 trillion.

The plan calls for broadening the tax base without adding new burdens, extracting more value from state-owned assets, and building out infrastructure financing tools alongside wider use of public-private partnerships.

Investment climate and startups

A single investment platform now links 90 government entities, and licensing has been simplified across roughly 468 activities. Nine new investment zones are planned. A programme called Egypt Exports Forward is being launched, and a foreign direct investment strategy is being drafted with the World Bank.

For startups, the government wants to support 5,000 companies and is preparing a joint financing fund through NI Capital. A unified initiative is intended to mobilise $1 billion over five years. A Business Clinic has settled 21 of the 48 challenges brought to it.

The distance between the headline targets and delivery rests largely on private capital and export capacity. The 6.8% growth goal sits well above both the 4.4% recorded in 2025 and the 5.1% the IMF expects for 2026, which means the programme's second half has to carry gains the current trajectory does not yet produce.

Industry

Industry Minister Khaled Hashem announced a $180.8 million initiative, or EGP 10 billion, aimed at struggling factories. Egypt counts 158 industrial zones, 10,544 allocated industrial plots and 66,108 industrial registrations.

Digital sector

The digital economy is meant to reach 8% of GDP and add 200,000 jobs by 2030. Plans include local manufacturing of 30 million mobile phones, five to seven hyperscale data centres, and an expansion of Egypt Digital services to 400, serving 30 million to 35 million users.

Energy and petroleum

The budget was built on oil at $75 a barrel; prices ran at $110 a barrel during geopolitical developments. Egypt wants half its energy from renewable sources by 2030.

Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi said 591 new wells had been added to production and 113 discoveries made between July 2024 and June 2026. Dues owed to foreign partners had reached about $6.1 billion, and those payments were settled more than two years ago.

Tourism

Egypt received about 19 million tourists in 2025. Arrivals totalled 135 million between July 2014 and June 2026.

The target is 30 million annual tourists by fiscal 2030/2031, with revenue of $36 billion to $40 billion, 300 million tourist nights a year and hotel capacity expanded to 500,000 rooms and units. Tourism Minister Sherif Fathy said the country could host 60 million to 70 million visitors a year if capacity allowed. The sector employs 4.5 million people, 240 archaeological restoration projects are under way, and 30,000 artifacts have been recovered.

Jobs, housing and rural services

The programme is designed to create 3 million jobs and bring unemployment to 5.5% by 2030. More than 2 million housing units have been built for low- and middle-income households since 2014. Rural sanitation coverage rose from 11% to more than 60%, with beneficiaries climbing from 7 million in 2014 to between 36 million and 40 million.

President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said strategic commodity reserves cover about six months. He said 10 million feddans could be reclaimed for agriculture if water were available, and called for higher agricultural and livestock output. He also pushed for subsidy reform and a shift toward cash transfers instead of in-kind support.