Fitch Forecasts Saudi Assets Under Management Above $400 Billion in 2027
Fitch Ratings expects the kingdom's asset-management industry, already the GCC's largest, to grow past $400 billion in 2027 as foreign holdings rise and private funds expand.
Saudi Arabia's asset-management industry is on course to pass $400 billion in 2027, Fitch Ratings forecasts, pointing to investor demand and growing foreign participation as the forces behind the expansion.
The kingdom's sector is the largest in the GCC, and Fitch said it has been resilient to volatility so far in 2026.
Industry assets reached about $370 billion at end-H1 2026, up 20% year on year and equal to roughly 27% of GDP.
Bashar Al Natoor, Fitch's global head of Islamic finance, said geopolitical, oil price and rate risks remain for the sector. A strong domestic investor base works in its favour, he said.
Foreign holdings are climbing. Overseas investors held 12% of the Saudi Exchange main market at end-October 2026, and 14.5% of Saudi government local debt at end-H1 2026, against 4.5% at end-2024.
Private funds lead the expansion
Private funds accounted for 55% of assets after growing 31%, with real estate and equities driving the gain. Public funds rose 19% to 18% of the total, with allocations spread across money market funds, equities, REITs and debt.
Wider deficits ahead
The 2027 pre-budget statement, issued in September, projects higher spending and wider deficits. Fitch said the document illustrates the fiscal pressures that have built up since the regional conflict.
The 2026 deficit is projected at 4.9% of GDP, above the 2026 budget target but below the 5.8% outturn for 2025. Official projections put the 2029 shortfall at 3.3% of GDP on higher spending, a path Fitch linked to the government's 2030 targets.
S&P Global Ratings affirmed the kingdom's A+/A-1 long- and short-term foreign and local currency ratings in September. The agency said high oil prices and a diversified export network, including the Yanbu port on the Red Sea and the East-West oil pipeline, help the country withstand conflict pressures.
S&P expects Saudi real GDP to contract 0.9% in 2026 on lower oil production and subdued non-oil growth, then grow 8.2% in 2027 and average 3.3% across 2028 and 2029.
Read together, the two sets of forecasts describe a government spending more while running wider deficits, which leaves domestic pools of capital to absorb issuance and back projects tied to the 2030 targets. That places unusual weight on the investor base Fitch treats as the sector's anchor.
