OPEC+ Oil Output Rises to 41.2 Million Bpd in October, Led by Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia added 1.2 million bpd on a secondary-source basis, lifting OPEC+ supply to 97% of its pre-conflict February level.
OPEC+ crude output climbed by nearly 2 million barrels a day in October to 41.2 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia leading the recovery. The total came within 3% of February's level — the last month before the regional conflict disrupted supplies — according to calculations drawn from OPEC data.
Saudi Arabia reported its October production directly to OPEC. The group listed the kingdom's figure in a footnote, kept separate from its market supply in the secondary-source estimates published on November 11. Saudi supply to the market averaged 9.2 million bpd in October by the kingdom's own communication. Secondary sources estimated Saudi crude output at 9.2 million bpd as well, a gain of 1.2 million bpd on September.
Iraq added 496,000 bpd on a secondary-source basis, Kuwait 232,000 bpd and the UAE 91,000 bpd. Russia's production rose by 41,000 bpd.
Seven members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — agreed on November 1 to hold September's required production levels through December. They restated their commitment to comply with the Declaration of Cooperation, the framework governing coordinated output. The decision followed an October 4 agreement to leave November's required levels unchanged. The seven said they would keep reviewing market conditions monthly. The next OPEC+ meeting was set for November 29.
OPEC's November report left its global demand growth forecasts untouched: 180,000 bpd for 2026 and about 2.6 million bpd for 2027.
The US Energy Information Administration's November 10 outlook said falling inventories, attacks on tankers, constrained shipping capacity and higher transport costs tightened supplies in October. It projected Brent holding near $100 a barrel for the rest of 2026, assuming most Middle East production outside Iran returns to pre-conflict averages by mid-2027. As global inventories rebuild, the agency expects Brent to average $77 in the fourth quarter of 2027. The outlook was completed on November 5 and did not specifically account for market events that followed.
The recovery to 97% of pre-conflict volumes has not been matched by a change in policy: the group chose to hold required levels steady rather than release more supply, even as price forecasters assume a full return of regional output only by mid-2027.
