Saudi Arabia Reroutes Crude as Bab al-Mandeb Flow Stops

Saudi Arabia is rerouting its crude exports in response to shipping disruption across the region, and tanker data shows how fast volumes can move between terminals. Shipments through the Bab al-Mandeb strait have fallen to almost nothing. Cargoes loaded on the Red Sea coast now head north toward the Suez Canal rather than east toward Asia. The shifts carry consequences for European refiners, for crude price differentials, and for the diesel and jet fuel that comes out of Saudi Arabia's west-coast plants.

Crude exports averaged 5.6 million barrels per day in the first half of October. Ras Tanura accounted for 3 million bpd of that total and Yanbu for 2.3 million bpd. The weekly numbers have been far less steady. Loadings moved from 4 million bpd in the week of September 14 to 9.4 million bpd the week after. They reached 7.2 million bpd in the week of October 5, made up of 4.1 million bpd at Ras Tanura and 3.1 million bpd at Yanbu, then climbed to 8.3 million bpd the following week with 4.3 million bpd from Ras Tanura, 3.1 million bpd from Yanbu and about 1 million bpd not yet attributed to any terminal. Preliminary figures for the week of October 19 showed 3.1 million bpd, of which 2.5 million bpd came from Yanbu and 0.5 million bpd from Ras Tanura.

Homayoun Falakshahi, senior manager for upstream at the data firm Kpler, said weekly swings should not be read as a durable trend, and the preliminary count for the week of October 19 was incomplete. Unattributed volumes, which touched roughly 1 million bpd in the week of October 12 and held near that level through much of August, were probably Yanbu cargoes, he added, meaning the port's contribution may be understated.

"Not yet, in our view. The rebound is driven by Ras Tanura, which was effectively idle from April to mid-June, restarted in late June, slipped again in August, around 1 million bpd on average, and has been back at around 4 million bpd since mid-September."

Yanbu has not recovered its earlier volumes. The port averaged around 4 million bpd from April to mid-June, when it carried most of the kingdom's exports. October loadings were about 3.1 million bpd, after dropping to between 700,000 and 1.2 million bpd during several weeks in August and September. "So the Gulf side is recovering, while the Red Sea side has not returned to its spring level," Falakshahi said.

Pipeline damage and a conversion plan

A drone strike in the second week of September severely damaged at least one pumping station along the East-West Pipeline, cutting flows to the Red Sea coast. Loadings from the west coast resumed on September 17, and Kpler's analysis put the line back in service by at least September 22. Confirmed loadings reached 42 million barrels between September 17 and October 4. Radar imagery from October 4 showed two tankers at Yanbu and all three berths occupied at Muajjiz.

Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the energy minister, said on October 6 that oil pumped through the East-West Pipeline to Yanbu had reached 5.8 million barrels. On October 12 he set out plans to lift pipeline crude export capacity to as much as 10 million bpd within two to three years. Speaking at the World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh, he said temporarily converting a domestic gas pipeline to carry crude could add 1.2 million bpd within seven to eight weeks, with further investment potentially adding up to 3 million bpd. Saudi Aramco could use the converted line until May before returning it to gas service. Upgrades to the East-West network would give the company more room to manoeuvre while shipping lanes are disrupted.

Four routes in seven months

Rahul Choudhary, vice president of oil and gas research at Rystad Energy, said the kingdom had shown "real flexibility" in shifting its export operations as routes came under threat. When the Strait of Hormuz closed in March, Saudi Arabia sent more crude to Yanbu, lifting loadings there from under 1 million bpd to more than 4 million bpd. After the Houthi blockade of Bab al-Mandeb in July, Yanbu cargoes were diverted north through Egypt's SUMED line. When the East-West Pipeline was struck in September, exports moved back to the eastern terminals, adding roughly 3 million bpd of Persian Gulf loadings within weeks.

The real vulnerability is a sustained disruption to the East-West line and Hormuz at the same time. That would leave Saudi Arabia with no way to switch between its main export routes, Choudhary said. To reduce the exposure, Riyadh is studying a pipeline across the Empty Quarter to Duqm in Oman, which would bypass both chokepoints. Duqm sits on the Arabian Sea, about 650 kilometres from Iran's coast, making its terminal considerably harder to target.

The southern route closes

Saudi-origin crude through Bab al-Mandeb averaged 3.2 million bpd between mid-March and mid-July, when Yanbu was a key outlet for Asian buyers. Volumes fell to around 500,000 bpd in August and September, then to nearly zero in October. Shipments were 290,000 bpd in the week of October 5, and no Saudi-origin crude passed the strait in either of the following two weeks. Total southbound crude flows were 1.4 million bpd in the week of October 19, against a pre-war average of 2.4 million bpd and a peak of 5.9 million bpd between March and July. What remains is mostly Russian crude at 1.3 million to 1.7 million bpd, alongside smaller volumes from Sudan and Libya.

"Saudi crude loaded at Yanbu is no longer going through Bab el-Mandeb in any meaningful volume. It is going north, towards Ain Sukhna and the Suez Canal. That is consistent with owners avoiding the strait given the Houthi threat, and it means the Red Sea export route now depends on Suez-side capacity rather than on access to Asia via the south."

Northbound Saudi shipments through Bab al-Mandeb have been absent since March. Iraqi crude has filled part of the gap, averaging around 500,000 bpd between mid-August and mid-October against roughly 300,000 bpd before the war, though weekly volumes remain volatile.

European arrivals recover

Refiners in Europe are receiving more Middle Eastern crude as Suez Canal transits pick up, weighing on regional differentials even with freight costs still high. European arrivals of Middle Eastern crude dropped to about 400,000 bpd in the week of September 21, then recovered to 1.4 million bpd in the week of October 12. They were projected at 1.7 million bpd for the week of October 19, up from 1.2 million bpd in early September. Suez transits accounted for about 1.4 million bpd of the October 19 arrivals. Volumes through Egypt's Sidi Kerir terminal moved the other way, sliding from around 300,000 bpd in late September to less than 100,000 bpd, a sign that crude moved through SUMED is still largely bound for Asia.

Saudi Aramco has issued November term allocations to at least three European refiners and offered spot cargoes from Yanbu and Sidi Kerir after weeks of cancelled or deferred shipments. The extra supply is already showing in prices. Delivered Basrah Medium in the Mediterranean fell to a premium of $1 to $3 per barrel over Dated Brent on a cost, insurance and freight basis at Augusta, from $5.5 to $6.5 per barrel a week earlier.

Kpler expects sour crude prices to come under more pressure over the next two weeks as November allocations land. European refiners are likely to keep favouring medium grades through November and December to maximise diesel and other middle-distillate output, helped by diesel margins that are stronger than gasoline. Renewed attacks on Gulf shipping, lower Middle Eastern loadings or fresh transit restrictions are the main risks to that outlook.

Products remain the exposure

Recovering crude flows do not solve the products problem. Before the September attack on the East-West Pipeline, Saudi Arabia's west-coast refineries shipped about 400,000 bpd of refined products, mainly gasoil, diesel and jet fuel bound for Europe. Capacity was already constrained after the 400,000-bpd Jizan refinery shut following Houthi attacks in July.

"A new disruption at Yanbu would hit Europe's diesel and jet fuel supply directly."

Those refineries depend on crude delivered by the East-West Pipeline, Choudhary said. Middle Eastern diesel exports were still 27% below year-earlier levels in September. Gulf producers exported roughly 3.3 million bpd of refined petroleum products in 2025, much of it diesel and jet fuel. Storage gives Saudi Arabia's west-coast plants an estimated three to four weeks of operation if crude deliveries stop. A longer outage would force further cuts to product exports just as European heating demand reaches its seasonal peak.