Saudi Non-Oil Growth Accelerates to 1.9% as Oil Drag Eases
Preliminary third-quarter estimates show non-oil activity more than doubling its pace while a narrower 3.8% GDP contraction reflects a smaller fall in crude output.
Saudi Arabia's non-oil economy grew 1.9% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, up from 0.8% in the previous three months, preliminary estimates released on Sunday show.
The pickup offset part of a steep decline in energy output. Real GDP contracted 3.8%, narrower than the 4.7% fall in the second quarter. Oil activities shrank 20.4%, against 24.8% previously.
Oil subtracted 4.7 percentage points from annual growth. Non-oil activity added 1.1 points and net taxes on products 0.1 points. Government activity fell 2.7%, cutting 0.4 points from the headline.
Seasonally adjusted, real GDP rose 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, reversing a 4.8% contraction. Oil activities climbed 5.7% and non-oil activity 0.6%.
The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects a 3.3% contraction this year and a 7.9% rebound in 2027, tied to improved regional shipping conditions and energy export logistics.
Surveys point the same way: the PMI rose to 55.3 in September from 53.8 in August, indicating stronger conditions in the non-oil private sector.
A 20.4% fall in oil output is now a smaller drag than the non-oil base is a lift. As crude volumes and freight lanes recover, the non-oil figure increasingly decides the headline rather than merely softening it.
