Egypt's Core Inflation Eases to 13.1% in October, a Second Straight Decline
Annual core inflation slowed again, yet the monthly reading accelerated and the central bank has just lifted its deposit rate to 20%.
Egypt's annual core inflation slowed to 13.1% in October from 14.1% in September, the Central Bank of Egypt said on November 9, the second consecutive month of deceleration. The rate was 14.9% in August.
The monthly figure moved the other way. Core prices rose 1.2% in October, faster than the 0.8% gain in September, though well below the 2% recorded in October 2025. Because the year-earlier month was so much heavier, the 12-month comparison still eased.
Core inflation is the central bank's own measure. It strips out volatile food items, including fresh fruit and vegetables, along with government-regulated goods and services, so that persistent price pressure can be separated from temporary shocks.
Headline measures ease faster
Urban headline inflation, reported by CAPMAS, decelerated to 12.7% annually from 13.9%. Monthly urban inflation came in at 0.7%, down from 1.3% in September and from 1.8% in October 2025.
Nationwide, annual headline inflation fell to 12% from 12.8%, with monthly inflation at 0.6% against 1.5% a month earlier. Planning and economic development minister Ahmed Rostom presented those figures at a Cabinet meeting on November 5.
Housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel posted the largest annual increase among main expenditure categories at 24.1%. Actual housing rents climbed 27.7%, while electricity, gas and other fuels rose 22.8%. Food and beverage prices added 0.8% on the month, with meat and poultry up 3.2%.
Policy stays tight
The central bank raised its key rates by 100 basis points on October 29, lifting the overnight deposit rate to 20% and the overnight lending rate to 21%. It said the move was intended to anchor inflation expectations and safeguard the disinflation path. Among the risks it cited were regional geopolitical tensions, higher global energy and commodity prices, tighter international financial conditions, and a possible stronger-than-expected price impact from domestic fiscal consolidation.
Its target remains average headline inflation of 7%, plus or minus two percentage points, in the fourth quarter of 2027.
Growth has been running ahead of the previous year. GDP expanded 5.1% in fiscal 2025-26, against 4.4% a year earlier, the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development reported, with the fourth quarter alone at 4.7%. Non-oil manufacturing grew 9%, petroleum refining returned to growth with an 8.7% increase, and Suez Canal activity expanded 23.3% after contracting in the prior year. Trade and communications also contributed.
That gap between the two monthly readings is the number to watch. Core prices rose 1.2% while headline prices rose 0.7% in urban terms and 0.6% nationwide, which puts the October relief in food and administered prices rather than across the wider basket. With the deposit rate already at 20% and the 7% target still more than a year off, the central bank is weighing a single month of softer annual data against an underlying series that just got faster.
