Saudi Arabia Plans $370.7B Spending in 2027 With 3.6% GDP Deficit

The Saudi Ministry of Finance expects the government to spend 1.392 trillion riyals, or $370.7 billion, in 2027, against revenue of about 1.202 trillion riyals ($321 billion). The difference leaves a projected fiscal deficit equal to 3.6% of gross domestic product, or roughly 191 billion riyals ($51 billion), as the kingdom keeps financing its Vision 2030 development agenda.

The projection comes from the ministry's Pre-Budget Statement for fiscal year 2027, published Wednesday. It shows a spending plan that keeps expanding toward the end of the decade, with outlays reaching 1.544 trillion riyals ($411.1 billion) in 2029 and revenue climbing to 1.351 trillion riyals ($360.3 billion) the same year.

The fiscal path through 2029

• 2027: expenditure of 1.392 trillion riyals ($370.7 billion) and revenue of 1.202 trillion riyals, about $321 billion, leaving a deficit of some 191 billion riyals ($51 billion).
• 2028: revenue is projected at 1.302 trillion riyals ($347.2 billion).
• 2029: expenditure of 1.544 trillion riyals ($411.1 billion) against revenue of 1.351 trillion riyals ($360.3 billion).

Money will continue to go to development priorities and to projects judged to carry economic and social returns, the ministry said, with fiscal sustainability kept in view. The shortfall will be covered by borrowing at home and abroad through bonds, sukuk and loans, alongside alternative financing for projects and infrastructure and funding supported by export credit agencies.

Oil decline pulls headline growth down

Real GDP is forecast to contract 3.6% in 2026. The ministry attributes most of that to a projected 21.8% fall in oil activities, which it connects to economic and geopolitical developments during the year. Non-oil activities are expected to grow 3.2% over the full year, softening part of the oil-driven decline. In the first half, non-oil activity expanded 1.8% and its share of GDP reached a record 57.3%.

Oil is the dominant factor behind the contraction. Non-oil growth of 3.2% offsets only part of it.

Inflation is expected to average around 2.1% in 2026. The unemployment rate among Saudis was 6.5% in the second quarter.

Non-oil revenue takes a larger share

Non-oil revenue rose from 166 billion riyals ($44.3 billion) in 2015 to 505 billion riyals ($134.7 billion) in 2025. Over the same period, its coverage of government expenditure climbed from 17% to about 36%. The private sector's contribution to GDP also grew, from 44% in 2016 to 51% by the end of 2025.

Finance Minister Mohammed Aljadaan said the government would keep tracking economic and geopolitical developments and their effect on the global economy, supply chains and energy markets. He said it would use flexible fiscal policies to support Vision 2030 priorities.