S&P Affirms Oman at 'BBB-' With Stable Outlook, Lifts 2026 Growth Forecast to 3.5%
The agency raised its real GDP projection on higher oil prices and expanding hydrocarbon supply, and pointed to Oman's position outside the Strait of Hormuz.
Tariq Benali Tariq Benali covers business and corporate news across the UAE and MENA for Anecdoted, tracking the deals, leadership moves and regulatory shifts behind the region's companies. tariq@anecdoted.com
Oman's long-term sovereign credit rating has been affirmed at 'BBB-' by S&P Global Ratings, which kept the short-term rating at 'A-3' and the outlook at stable. The same action lifted the agency's forecast for the Sultanate's real GDP growth in 2026 to 3.5%, from 1.6% previously.
Two forces drive that upgrade. Oil prices are expected to hold higher for longer, and hydrocarbon supply is set to expand to meet global demand while Middle East geopolitics stay unsettled. The agency pointed to steady gains in the country's fiscal and external positions, and to a brighter economic outlook overall.
The decision leaves Oman at investment grade, the level it reached in September 2024 when the rating rose from 'BB+'.
Public finances are projected to remain in surplus. S&P expects a fiscal surplus of about 4.8% of GDP in 2026, easing to roughly 2.2% in 2027. Government debt is put at 30.2% of GDP by the end of 2026. Over the medium term, the agency expects the state to hold a positive net government asset position as its fiscal buffers keep building.
The external accounts look much the same. A current-account surplus of about 3.5% of GDP is forecast for 2026, tapering to around 1.8% by 2029. Foreign-exchange reserves stood at roughly $19.5 billion at the end of June 2026.
Outside hydrocarbons, activity grew about 1.3% year on year in the first half of 2026. Trade, information technology and financial services carry much of the diversification effort. Logistics is doing more than its share: cargo volumes at Salalah rose 15% in the first half, while volumes at Sohar climbed 52%.
Geography helps. Oman sits outside the Strait of Hormuz, and its main ports — Duqm, Salalah and Mina al Fahal — open directly onto the Arabian Sea. Hydrocarbon exports therefore escape the shipping disruption that can catch its neighbours. That matters, because oil and gas generate 70% of government revenue and half of goods exports.
S&P's base case assumes Brent crude averages $95 a barrel through the end of the year and Omani production reaches 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026. Output has already climbed 16% since late 2025 as the country works to optimize its reserves.
